The math still isn't HRC friendly

OK - After seeing some of the notorious "non-reality" based people discuss how HRC is up 26 in PA and "closing" in NC, I wanted to bring us all back to reality.

I did a small bit of analysis on the elections between now and the convention.

Join me below the fold.

Current Count of delegates (source: Real Clear Politics):

Cat:  pledged   supers      total
HRC:  1246       248        1494
BHO:  1414       213        1627

Being VERY charitable, suppose that HRC takes PA 60/40, West VA, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico also at 60/50.

And even more charitably, they split the other states 50/50 (with an odd rounding up to HRC)

Cat:  pledged   supers      total
HRC:  1666       248        1879
BHO:  1561       213        1809

Ignoring (for a moment) the 105 pledged delegate lead, HRC finishes the nomination race 70 delegates behind.

For her to get to 2025, she would need another 216 super delegates to give her 2025.  With 334 currently unpledged, she would need about 65% of them to go to her.

That assumes no new defections and a very charitable split of the remaining pledged delegates.

Sorry - I just don't see it happening.

Update: Math Corrected.  Never was my strong suit.